It Truly Is Getting Better (and the US is not worse than the rest of the world!)….

Today I have received a great deal of concern that the pandemic is not improving, especially in the US. The reasons for this are, in part, due to confusing and contradictory dialogues in the news. Some also have used graphics showing total death numbers to suggest the US is doing worse than the rest of the world, not pointing out that we will have more total deaths because we are a larger country! However, all signs are that the pandemic is waning, especially in some of the hardest hit areas of the United States. Also, when looking at deaths per capita, the US is doing better than many countries with similar weather and population densities.

The number of people who are testing positive for the virus in US areas most affected by COVID-19 is starting to decrease and the number of individuals seeking medical care has also dropped. Concerns have been raised, however, that the death rate does not seem to be dropping. The graph of daily deaths shown below indicates that total deaths continue to rise. Remarkably, as compared to what you hear in the news, the increase in new deaths (slope of the curve as defined by the arrow) is less in the US than the world as a whole.

In the above figure, the daily deaths in the United States do appearcontinue to increase. But death rates per million inhabitants tells another story. US death rates are stabilizing and are actually flattening at lower levels than most European countries. In fact, the United States will never reach the death rates per capita that were seen in Europe. Social distancing is one reason for that.

One of the things that may be most confusing is that the death rates have leveled off but don’t appear to be dropping as quickly as COVID-19 infections. This is because the death rate lags behind infection rate. The reason for this is clear; one is first exposed to the virus, five days later you develop symptoms and then sometime after that suffer a more serious illness that can lead to death. So the death statistics are inherently a couple of weeks behind infection markers in a pandemic.

I expect that in the next week deaths will decline, reflecting current declines in new illness and hospitalizations. This is really good news.

Published by jbakerjrblog

Immunologist, former Army MD, former head of allergy and clinical immunology at University of Michigan, vaccine developer and opinionated guy.

5 thoughts on “It Truly Is Getting Better (and the US is not worse than the rest of the world!)….

  1. Hope you are correct. I can’t see why a huge second wave won’t occur unless current measures are continued, especially considering the rapid easy contagion already demonstrated, presumably even when infected aren’t sneezing and coughing.
    Also, if this isn’t food borne or at least carried on food, how did it start in a wet market, or was it inadvertent release from a lab?

    Like

    1. We need to assess where we are as a country with the virus during the summer, when respiratory illness is normally suppressed.

      It is one thing to eat an infected bat. It is another to touch a package of chicken that another COVID patient has touched or eve coughed on!

      Like

  2. We may be doing better than Italy or France, but you seem to be brushing off that we’re a lot worse than many advanced countries. The phrase “not worse than the rest of the world” isn’t helpful or descriptive, it’s spin.

    Like

  3. “not worse than the rest of the world” is heavy spin. We’re not as bad as the early-crisis countries in Europe, but we’re definitely worse than many advanced countries and you seem to be leaving that out.

    Like

    1. Please show me another “advanced” western country of the same size that is better per capita? Most of the North and South American companies do so poorly in testing you cannot trust them. Canada is better but their population density outside the US boarder is zilch. Not saying we did a remarkable juob, but the press makes it sound as if people were dying in the street. That didn’t happen even in NYC.

      Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: