I have been traveling, but wanted to alert you to a terrific article on the recent virus variants by Lawrence Wright in the New Yorker. The bottom line though, as you have read frequently in this blog, is that the best way to prevent the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and prevent a virus that escapes the vaccine, is for everyone to get vaccinated ASAP.
Dr. Fauci proposed today to immunize 85% of the population by fall. It is possible and would make the difference.
2 thoughts on “A brief note tonight.”
Could you comment on the issue of cycle time? Articles are written claiming unnecessarily (how defined?) high cycle time giving rise to a positive test from an asymptomatic person within whom the amount of RNA is too miniscule for that person to infect others. Do we know that there is a tipping point below which finding RNA in a test indicates an infecting individual but below which such a person is harmless to others? Do we track cycle time? Do we follow up on false positives or all positives to know which of those who test positive do get sick and which do not? Is a positive test calibrated by other than a “yes RNA has been detected” or “no RNA has not been detected” to indicate Patient A has much RNA in sample cf. Patient B has very little? Speculation is that under the new President a mandate will be issued to reduce cycle times, thereby reducing the number of positive tests (weeding out all of the false positives) and enabling new leadership to claim success from the mask mandate, or other mandates, as the cause of a reduction in positive tests whereas the real cause may be a change in cycle times, a fact too obscure for the “public” to pay attention to or understand.
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I just spoke with the MIT people, we need to talk, very interesting use of fluorescence lateral flow. They are open to a joint venture.
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