A brief update on Rt.Live

Lots of states are showing increases in infections today. There are also increases in hospitalizations in several states, particularly in the south. As of yet this has not increased death statistics, but we need to monitor the numbers. As always, people should focus on the most important things. I think that for a respiratory virus, that is wearing a mask.

You are probably aware that one of the websites I recommend is Rt.Live. It gives a real time analysis of whether the pandemic is expanding or contracting based on the rates of infection from a single single individual. If a single person infects less than one person, the infection is contracting. If they are infecting more than one person, then the pandemic is expanding.

Rt.line has significantly changed their methodology recently (June 25th). AB explanation of this is on the site, along with responses to questions. This change has markedly increased the R0 for all states and they have back-revised the data for prior time frames. As of today, are about 2/3 of the states are now showing increases.

R0 values today in each state. States in red have a value over 1.0

This is obviously disconcerting, but when one looks at the rates from 2 weeks ago, there is little difference.

R0 rates from 2 weeks ago.

This suggests increase activity since early June that was not previously identified. This is much greater than 2 months ago when social distancing was at its peak.

R0 values 2 months ago.

Two take aways: The projections are being continually refined and made more accurate, which is good. We will need to follow these numbers carefully and understand how to predict changes in infection activity further out so we can react more effectively.

Published by jbakerjrblog

Immunologist, former Army MD, former head of allergy and clinical immunology at University of Michigan, vaccine developer and opinionated guy.

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